Russia Fires Chief Negotiator — Vance Becomes the Primary Channel

Russian and Chinese intelligence assessments have concluded that President Putin should deal directly with JD Vance and drop the existing negotiation channel — Witkoff, Kushner, and Kirill Dmitriev.

The Chinese assessment of Dmitriev is described as “even more scathing than Lavrov’s.” The Russian Security Council consensus is that the Trust-in-Trump interpretation of the Anchorage Formula — which envisioned a bribery-scheme track involving $300 billion in frozen Russian assets co-managed by Dmitriev, Witkoff, and Kushner — is now discredited.

The shift is structural. Russia is no longer negotiating with Trump’s bagmen. It is negotiating with Trump’s presumed successor. This means: (1) the Kremlin expects Trump to be gone by 2028 or sooner, (2) Vance is assessed as the Republican future, and (3) the bribery-scheme track is dead.

For Ukraine, this extends the ceasefire timeline. Sanctions relief for Russian oil — which markets had been pricing as imminent — is now on Vance’s political calendar, not Trump’s deal-making clock. The new channel is focused on a 2028 campaign, not on delivering a Russia deal in 2026.

Market implications: Long-end UST if Russian reserve diversification continues. EUR curve if energy costs stay elevated on delayed sanctions relief. Ukraine ceasefire vol — the market was pricing a deal as near-term; this extends the timeline. European energy and grain vol underpriced. Confidence: medium.